A Plan For Victory
How Lebanon can help replace the regime in Damascus.
Most of the Lebanese are very motivated; we want to do something to make a difference yet we have an overwhelming sense of powerlessness and anger. We are watching our leaders fall one after the other and we feel that we can’t do anything about it.
The security council is not helping either. We are learning that realpolitik often trumps high ideals and the sense of justice. Even the Arabs don’t seem to get it, and we’re stuck with saving our own asses. We are tired of words and condemnations, what can we do?
We have two choices: cry and blame others for our historic bad luck, or we can be pro-active and try do something about it. As far as things stand right now, the Syrians are playing a better game than we are. It doesn’t matter who’s wrong and who’s right, all that matters is playing the game right. Are we up for the challenge?
The dilemma is this: Entrenched in Damascus is a bloodthirsty regime that comes from a middle age mentality. The regime values notions like total dominion and revenge, and Lebanon will never be safe as long as the Assads or the Shawkats rule Syria. This is why, whether or not the international investigation implicates Syria, the regime has to go. How can we help achieve that?
The Syrian regime has two strengths:
1- It has convinced the west (and some intellectuals) that there are no better alternatives than the current rulers
2- I has a ruthless iron-grip on its interior and it’s stifling any form of dissent.
The problem is that they are creating a vicious circle. If no dissent is allowed, no alternatives to the regime can be created, and this enforces their first strength.
How can we as Lebanese change that? By looking at our own strengths: freedom of expression and the freedom to gather and exchange of ideas. This is not about poetry or slogans. This is about a plan that can actually work, a plan that is based on our competitive advantages.
What we need in Lebanon is an all-encompassing vision that takes advantage of our chore strengths to be able to influence and ultimately break, our neighboring regime.
All our energies abroad and in Lebanon should be focused transforming Lebanon into some sort of “Syrian dissidents incubator”. The purpose of such an enterprise is not to impose ‘foreign’ political ideas on our Syrian brothers and sisters, but simply to plant the seed of free expression in their minds.
Gebran Tueni has already done something similar by making Annahar the forum of choice for Syrian intellectuals Ali al-Abdallah, Yassin al-Haj Saleh, Burhan Ghalyoun, Muhammad Ali al-Atassi, Ali Sadreddine al-Bayanouni, Michel Kilo, Anwar al-Bunni, and Suheir al-Atassi who have expressed their strong discontent at his slaying. But what I’m talking about here is much larger than simply a newspaper opening its page for critics.
We need to transform this principal into THE guiding strategic policy for our dealing with Syria. We have to create incentives for Syrian dissidents to come to live and work in Lebanon. we have to allow them to thrive in an environment that allows them to mature their ideas. They should be invited to talk on LBC, Future and NTV, all watched inside of Syria. We have to give them incentives to assemble and plan in Lebanon. Our objective should be to “incubate” them until they have a good following in Syria, and until they are ready to “take charge”.
Will this work? My answer is this: If Syria didn’t feel tangibly threatened by Samir Kassir and Gebran Tueny, it wouldn’t have killed them. It is worth noting that both Samir and Gebran got killed when they started inciting the Syrians against their regimes.
That, gentlemen, is food for thought.
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Discussion
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Hello, my name is Mustapha and I blog in The Beirut Spring about Lebanese society and politics. I started in February 2005 after the killing of P.M. Rafik Hariri.
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In the final analysis “cream comes to the top” and a market of free ideas will ensure that the best ideas win. The drawback of this strategy is that it could take a long long time but once it succeeds it has the tendency to be transformative and long lasting. It is the only change that will work because it will be from within.
Great idea! Let’s work together.
This might be a good idea for the long run but for now our priority should be on how to defend ourselves. We have to rebuild our security apparatus and purge it from the Syrian influence. I think that is what we should be discussing in our forums at this moment. Gebran Tweini was killed after 12 hours of arriving to Lebanon. That means the airport security,Al Amn Al 3am, is infiltrated. If we don’t build a good security apparatus they will keep on killing our leaders one after the other. They will as well kill all the would be Syrian dissidents in Lebanon. To tighten our security, is to spread control of the state over the whole 10452 sq km. So back to square one.
Although I understand your thought process and agree with most of what you said, there are flaws in the plan Mustafa.
1) The arab and general global support and sympathy we enjoy right now is because our cause is liberty and freedom. The moment we start offering shelter to Syrian dissidents we will be labelled by the Syrian regime as conspiratorial and interfering in Syrian stability, and that support (except perhaps for US and Europe) will rapidly wither.
2) We couldn’t protect our PM, journalists and an MP from being savagely murdered. What hope do we have of protecting SYRIAN dissidents in Lebanon?! They need a platform that is a fortified castle, Lebanon right now is a defenseless savanah.
I think our strengh lies in that our cause is basic, vital and universal: liberty and freedom for Lebanese in Lebanon. If we stray from that, we will lose.
Maybe later when we’ve ‘cleansed’ our house and put our matters in order we can be a haven for liberty elsewhere.
Abd el Karim, you’re so smart man. Everybody knew that Tueni returned to Lebanon.
Vox, no one knew that Tweini returned. Not even his closest friends. Thats according to the media. Even at An-Nahar, they weren’t expecting him that day.
OK my mistake then
The question is not what to do but who
is next.
Before a fight you need to determine
who is the enemy.
I did not hear the Lebanese government
saying who is the enemy.
Am I deaf?
Hi Moustapha,
Although I like your plan, the first step is missing. We need to be first united in Lebanon to be able to follow your action plan. Do you think journalists will be as daring as the late Gebran Tueni knowing that their government can’t protect them? Which brings to elaborate more on the first step that I am suggesting. We need a strong homogeneous government. Everything that happened since the election does not make sense. I don’t understand how the Harirists and the Jumblatists find HA a closer ally than the FPM. Even more “stupid” was the formation of the government. The “Majority” gave away the most important ministries: the external affair and the justice. How stupid is that? Why this government is so sensitive to HA who openly backs Syria while all the base of the Cedar revolution is against Syria? How will this government show determination if they are begging the ministers who walked away to come back? It makes me angry that the Harirists and the Jumblatisits are giving up all the strength gained by the Cedar revolution. And ironically Gebran mentioned it many times that the liberation forces need to be united, the fight for independence is not done yet and unfortunately he paid the price for this division. In short, the Harirists and the Jumblatists were happy to have the service ministries (they want to be re-elected) and Aoun just wants to be president: this is the bottom line. So before we start changing the Syrian regime, some self-criticism is needed and our Cedar Revolution needs to be re-thought. We need what is called “Cedar Revolution part II”.
Ok…” both Samir and Gebran got killed when they started inciting the Syrians against their regimes.”
Gebran has been badmouthing since the 1970’s and was even voiceferous during syria’s occupation. Why didnt they shut him out while they were there? They couldve done it in a much quieter way and without much “attention?”
Now that…is food for thought.
“Why didnt they shut him out while they were there?”
Maybe because he wasn’t important at the time and that Syria is short of targets?
You don’t need food, you need water. For your medication.
Syria short of targets…shorter than when they were in lebanon?
I believe his voice of opposition has always been important and an issue. They couldve knocked him out long time ago…theres no reason to do it now. Plus, there are more important targets right now….what? the syrians cant get to them? haha.
please be more sane with the replies. Right now im actually real hungry, i need food. Medication isnt something hmo has been able to subsidize. Sorry.
Mustapha, Regime change is a syrian responsibility and no one else’s. We should not interfere in their internal affairs regardless of their actions and interference in ours. Whatever they do from now on is counter-productive.
Let us mind our own business and focus on changing our regime . I cannot understand why Lahoud is still allowed to remain in power and the security establishment has not been shaken up.
“It doesn’t matter who’s wrong and who’s right, all that matters is playing the game right. Are we up for the challenge?”
It does matter. We now have the moral high ground and we should not squander it to engage in Machevellian games.
I do agree with you that we should give a forum and refuge to Syrian dissidents in Lebanon but we should refrain from the MB training camps of the 80’s.
The regime is gasping its last breaths
Simpler still, all those Syrians who are still working there could be infected with a little bit of democratic civilization to take home with them after the construction season in over…
[...] I argued before that since Syria uses brutal force to influence Lebanese politics, it is only fair for us the Lebanese to use our competitive advantage -namely open society and free flow of information- to influence Syrian politics. [...]