“In my opinion, the AUB’s elections should be a cause for celebration. The sectarian lines are being blurred by the economy, but no one wants to admit it”

See I’m not so sure dude…

To my knowledge, Gen. Mitch ‘Aoun and aspiring-Ayatollah Nasrallalmighty never attended racist prayer services held in some kind of ‘Alawite Baathist Temple in Qardaha or Damascus…

MP Saad Al-Hariri and PM Fuad Saniura on the other hand were both seen several times (live on Saudi TV for that matter) seated in the front row of Jeddah’s central Wahhabi mosque, next to the Saudi kingdom’s freedom-loving clerical grandees, listening quietly to edifying sermons on “ethical issues” such as the planned extermination of Christian and Shiite dogs, a religious duty also know as “Tasfiyatt Al-Qelab al-Nasarah wal-Mataweelah” in Hambali parlance!

So much for your materialistic “perspective that is nevertheless the most essential factor in most democracies: The Economy”

Dr. Vic,
so u decide to have a new nick name:-)

lol..

Steve,
in your post you are indirectly saying that FPM program is just a piece of paper and bullet points (I agree to this point); specially that the points you mentioned collide with the FPM economical program that is based on no hand outs, free economy, strong market, mobadara fardie, and free trade..

Beirut spring, I think you are wrong bordering on delusional, BUT I hope you are right even though I know in my gut that you are not. Of course if you are right, all we need is some socialist program! I would much rather leb be a mini Hong Kong, than a mini Paris, economically speaking. It is already plain that there is not enough job creation on lebanon, hence all the emigration, the last thing we need is further economic stagnation.

Gentlmen, (and ladies)

While i know that this post can be easily dismissed as far-fetched, I invite you all to be open minded and really think about this.

Just for the sake of playfulness, assume that this is true and try to take a different look at how things are happening; you’ll be surprised.

I must say that’s one of your best posts Mustapha. I tried several times to immagine who would be where on the political spectrum in a perfect Lebanon where there is no such thing as sectarianism and outside interference.

I would put most of the pro-syrian parties now in the left, HA being an extreme left “revolutionary” party. FM would definitely be republican.

As for Aoun, I think the majority of his base is definitely what you described it. But I don’t know about him specifically. I see him more of a right wing nationalist than a left wing protectionist. I think this many people support because he appeals to “both sides of the aisle”.

MWB

Is it just me or do you all see the Irony of Jumblat’s “progressive socialit party” being on the conservatives’ side?

perhaps this is why he is cozying with Hezbollah.

That’s just because there are other such big issues at stake now. Look at what Jumblat did when Seniora was in New York. He attacked him when he pronounced the word privatization. Look at Berrie’s reaction too. At that moment, like a rainbow in the middle of a storm, you could see the real composition of the political spectrum in Lebanon.

I look forward for the day when we could start doing real politics in Leb.

MWB

Identities (sectarian, socio-economic, political…) in Lebanon often interlace. That’s nothing new. My only word of caution is with dismissing one for the other, or mistaking one for the other, or too closely identifying one with the other. That leads to huge mistakes (witness twit Cobban, or the Hair, or Annia Ciezadlo for instance. I have a good quote on this by Theo Hanf in a previous post) and confusions in interpretation.

Also, I would caution about labels like left and right, socialist vs conservative, etc.

Finally, there’s the element of populism and demagoguery. But it’s certainly an interesting phenomenon, regardless. It once again shows how badly people understand how Lebanon works, esp. about inter-sectarian coaliations. They completely miss the point (see Ciezadlo’s latest piece in TNR, “Cedar Bluffs,” for an example).

Mustapha,
Good post, however, I think dynamics will change again, if they haven’t already.

You have an interesting point about economics, but the General is not as pro-government monopoly of the means of production as Berri and Hezbollah.

His alliance with Berri is purely pragmatic.

However, I’ll add three more factors to why their alliance isn’t crazy:

1. Hezbollah and the FPM have always claimed to be the only nationalist movements. (Which leads to the second point)…

2. Hezbollah and the FPM both CLAIM to be secular and against sectarianism.

3. They are all disaffected by the Hariri/Jumblatt power grab.

Mustapha,

I see the logic of your argument. I hope you are right… in fact, I think that your interpretation represents one dimension of reality. In that sense I agree with Tony with regards to his call for caution and for accepting that developments somewhat more complex.

Interesting post Mustapha, but I don’t agree, and I can’t see how you reached such a conclusion. As a leftist myself, I would love to se things happening this way, but according to your description, FPM seems like a socialist movement, it is not, and as Khaled said, they claim to be the complete opposite. They say it plainly in their party constitution. The way I see it is that it is a coalition to face the majority, Aoun needs to oppose Future and PSP et al. but he can’t do it alone, while Hizbullah et al. need to prove that the pro-syrians are not totally out of the picture, or that the anti-syrians are not in total control, so they need Aoun, who has seperated himslef from them… therefore, the current situation.

The developments are indeed more complex, but economics plays a major role in them. One can not look at the political dynamics without considering the economic factors. Even within the same sect or political party, economics play a role in defining policies, alegiances and splits… Mustapha, in my opinion, this point of view can not “be dismissed as far fetched”. (Yet another one of your good posts…)

It is not impossible that one day, we have a right/left bipartisan political system. But I’ll have a white beard by then.

While I do agree with Tony that one should be cautious, I don’t agree with Raja or with others that think that Economics are just one dimension of the matter.

Stripping down a political problem to its economic component has proven very useful for policy making all over the world. It is a powerful abstraction and a great theoretical tool that simplifies matters a lot(with the caveat that Tony mentioned). The premise is simple: most problems are rooted in economic dissatisfaction. Militancy is highly correlated with poverty and joblessness.
This is why it is economic policy that separates parties from each other not anything else. In the US for instance, you can find Republicans and Democrats that have similar if not identical views on abortion, religion and homosexuality, but it’s very difficult to find ones that have similar tax or labor views.

The Other problem seems to be Michel Aoun.
Like Khaled pointed out and Abu takla concurred, Michel Aoun officially has a “conservative” economic policy, so he can’t be classified as a populist.
But there’s a catch: Aoun has never been in government and he still has the luxury of promising everything to everyone. Aounists have been supporting social and agriculture rallies, while at the same time promising pro-business and free-market reforms.

Aoun will eventually have to make up his mind. Just try to imagine Saad Hariri leading a demonstration against high fuel prices.

If I understand the Mustapha thread correctly it appears to be an attempt of applying what both Marx and Engels wrote about over a hundred years ago. History materialism is the primary force that shapes history. The laws of motion in the final analysis are determined by nothing else besided the class struggle. Unfortunately this has not been the case in Lebanon because the Lebanese society has been basically a tribal one i.e. it had not evolved enough as to recognize the inherent class interest yet. It is a welcome sign indeed when the coming generation seems to establish its alliances on the basus of class interest instead of primitive tribal ones. I would immediately caution ,however, that the alliances in question refer to citizens that are in their teens and history tells us that these positions are usually ephemeral.

“…materialism is the primary force that shapes history. The laws of motion in the final analysis are determined by nothing else besided the class struggle. Unfortunately this has not been the case in Lebanon…”

In Lebanon or elsewhere for that matter!

Using similar thinking, Karl Marx predicted that “France was ripe for a Communist revolution” in 1870, Trotsky said that “New York would become the epicenter of American socialism” in 1929….more recently, Jimmy Carter believed that “the modernist Iranian middle-class will never side with a backward revolutionary cleric”, and Viceroy Dick Cheney and “terrorism czar” David Bremer predicted that “the reopening of the Baghdad stock exchange would lure Sunni bourgeois types away from financing the resistance”!

If only it were that easy, what a beautiful world this would be!

Pentagon experts could reliably “factor in” all the relevant economic/material variables in their system, a bit like professor Xavier of X-Men fame or Don Rumsfeld in the run-up to the Iraq war…

Sheikh Sa’âd could buy off Gen. Aoun and aspiring Ayatollah Nasrallalmighty, just like his dad acquired Tueyni father & sons, Saniura, Mr. and Mrs. Geagea, Solange Gemayyel, VP Khaddâm, Gen. Ghazi Canaan & Co

It is true that Marx’s predictions turned out to be wrong on specifics but ,at least to this observer, it is undeniable that the major dynamic in shaping politics all over the world is class interest. This does not mean that other forces do not play a role but it implies that the more advanced a societal structure then the greater is the class friction. Class plays a much lesser role in socities where identity is essentially tribal and/or religious. And this unfortunately is the current state of affairs in Lebanon. The population; I avoid using the word citizen on purpose;does not owe its allegiance to ideas but to hereditary individuals. This results in the weak mosaic that we refer to as the Lebanese society whose members have all sorts of various identities except that of nationhood or class.
The formation of a political party that is trulu national and truly inclusive and that is truly democratic would be a sign that the state of the nation is good.The platforms of such political parties will ultimately evolve as to reflect the class interest of their members

Mustapha, as you said, economics play an integral role in the development of any society and its evolution, yet, in a tribal system, where the leader decides and the herds follow, it is the whims of the za3im that dictate policies. I do not believe that Aoun followers are the ones who called for a coalition with the Shiite parties, on the contrary, lots of them are either against it or have reservations. It is not a matter of proletariat being allured to the FPM economic program.
Another point: you mentioned that Democrats and Republicans have similar stands which only contradict at the economic stage. This is totally false, and to prove that refer to the alst American elections; gay marriage was one of the major issues used by republicans to defeat Kerry. Same goes for their positions on abortion, etc… Actually this is one thing that can prove you wrong, Bush’s policies are all for the corporate sector, any American in his sane mind would vote for Kerry, who was advocating a safety network/ social security reforms/ and educational profits for the common American, yet it is this sector which made him lose the elections… religion is the opium of the people, and the republicans were able to fight a war of ethics and religion to win it all (keeping the war in Iraq in mind).

So as it has been said before: it is not that simple.

Is there not another possibility: regionalism? Abu takla made me think of this by mentioning the American example, famously summed up by Thomas Frank in his book “What’s the Matter with Kansas?” But if he is right about Aoun making the decision, perhaps it was that he simply sought the largest yet most cohesive bloc in the south for allies? Which, despite what Thomas Frank says, is the real reason why the corporatist and social-conservative wings of the Republican Party stay together.

I see things in a totally different perspective. There appears to be playing out in Lebanon a peaceful Shiite-Sunni, post Syrian struggle for power. Aoun is taking advantage of this situation, playing off HA and FM, seeking the best possible deal for his less-powerful Christian community.

IN your post you say:

“..On one hand, you have wealthy traders (Sunnis) allying with generally wealthy land-owning Christians and Druze…On the other hand, you have soldiers, farmers, and poor laborers..”

I really apppreciate your honesty in saying that.
For someone who has your political affiliation to admit that General Michel Aoun is fighting for the Lebanese people and not for his own elite clan (like the others are doing) is something very courageous.

We always knew what the General is fighting for, it was, is, and will always be Lebanon and the Lebanese people.

as for your post:

“….This also explains the popularity of the Aounists in places like Akkar and Bequaa.”

I wish they were able to show it during the elections in May 2005, but I guess the “gifts” they were showered with during that time blinded their decision making, they thought only about the present and forgot the future which is the mess we are in today.

Mustafa, you say:

“But there’s a catch: Aoun has never been in government”

Are you too young to remember that General Michel Aoun was the priime minister of Lebann since 1988 to 1990?

The time when he was trying to save Lebanon from all the foreign forces in it?

The time when all the deputies ran to sign the Taif accord?

The time when Syria with the help of all the other parties in Lebanon (or should I say elite) ganged up against him and shelled the Presidential palace to get rid of him?

The time when 13 lebanese soldiers were burried in the defense ministry football field and no one tried to dig up their remains to be sent to their families for a dignified burrial until the General rose his voice up about it a month ago, which made all the elite group (who, by the way, was in power since then) ashamed of their behavior and Sanioura had to issue the order to go ahead with it?

“…Just try to imagine Saad Hariri leading a demonstration against high fuel prices.”

I know, like Marie Antoinette said: let them have cookies if they can’t afford bread.

There was a time when communities would seek counsel from the elders. More experience usually translated into lessons learned. Having picked up a pearl of wisdom here and there over the years, I am now able to share a thought or two. The main lesson is to never stop learning. Seeking other points of view and new ideas like visiting your blog are steps in the right direction. Finding what is ultimately important leads one to appreciate actuality, efficiency and mindfulness. Helping others to see some of the forest through the trees is its own reward. synergy