Worthless Threats



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A lot has been made of the Syrian-inspired “Diesel demonstrations” that will allegedly rock Beirut on Thursday, and perhaps topple Seniora’s government. This blogger predicts that such demonstrations will fail miserably.


When a Syrian newspaper calls for a demonstration to take place in Lebanon, with the intent of causing mayhem, a lot of Lebanese people automatically feel their stomachs twirl. How can they not? One should only go back to March 8 where Hezbollah gathered around 800,000 people to “thank Syria”, to realize that Syria can indeed mobilize a lot of people (who have arms) to jeopardize our fragile stability.

But our fear is mostly based on bad past experiences, not on rational thinking: The demo in question will be so weak it might have to be cancelled due to “bad weather” (to recall Omar Karami’s famous cancellation of the Tripoli Pro-Syrian demos back in early March)

There are many reasons why one should not be afraid. For example, back in March, the borders between Lebanon and Syria were too lose to be controlled. Busloads of Syrians were hauled in on March 8 to give Nassrallah’s crowd its beef. Today, as Annahar reports (via Tayyar) the Syrian-Lebanese borders have been under constant monitoring for two months.

The other reason why we should relax is political: The unpredictable Michel Aoun, whom the Syrians rely on to ‘power’ the demos, might pull the same trick as the one he pulled on President Lahhoud, where he cancelled a widely publicized meeting at the last minute and embarrassed the President. The fact that he is in the US right now makes this even more probable.

Even on the Hezbollah front. One could sense that they’re not as die-hard pro-Syrian as their image conveys. Hezbollah assigned Naim kassem to echo Bashar’s speech in Lebanon, while Hassan Nassrallah himself would have been the more logical person to do so (it was the Syrian President that spoke after all). I personally suspect that Hezbollah is puffing its chest just for negotiation purposes and is smarter than following the suicidal policies of Bashar.
Moreover, P.M Seniora has aborted Hezbollah’s plans to demonstrate over diesel prices by assigning their own minister to come up with a solution.

The Level of Syrian influence on Lebanese politicians is dwindling quickly; all you have to do is read the Tishreen article to see the kind of people who are supporting Mr. Assad these days: Omar Karami, Zaher el Khatib, Salim el hoss; people who can’t get their own mothers to vote for them, let alone mobilize masses of people to destabilize a country. It’s a golden rule, nobody follows the losers.

We should all remember that March 14 was a reaction to March 8; this is why the pro-Syrians will think twice before going down to the street, lest they be humiliated again in the numbers game. The Syrians have also lost their control of the Lebanese security apparatus, and the Army would not let a social demo turn into anything other than that.

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Discussion

No comments for “Worthless Threats”

  1. It was a clever thing Seniora did, assigning hizbullah’s own minister. They obviously weren’t expecting that. I’d like to see their minister justify the government’s policies.

    As for Aoun, the americans loath his apparent harmony with hizbullah. The fact that he’s going to visit them will surely make him reconsider. How can he justify to them going to the streets hand in hand with what they consider a terrorist organization, against someone they are so keen on supporting?

    You said Aoun is unpredictable. I think he’s simply a bad politician, forging bad alliances, alienating half the country, and being so obvioulsy “mesta2til” for the presidency. I’m not very enthusiastic about army generals going to Baabda, they have a tendency to not want to leave.

    Posted by M | November 15, 2005, 4:27 pm
  2. I saw March 8 with my own eyes. It wasn’t 800,000.
    If you give then 800,000, then you gotta give us 5 million, and that’s just not possible.

    They filled the parking lot in Riad as-Solh right in front of the UN. We filled from Sodeco to the sea, Saifi and Sofil to Saniya. We filled Riad as-Solh plus Sahet Shuhada. We filled the building under construction in Monnot and the entirety of the six lane Fouad Chehab highway.

    However, you are right about March 14 being a reaction to March 8. I hated the muarada. I had no faith in Michel Daher, Walid Jumblatt, and Nayla Muawad. And yet I went to March 14 solely because of March 8.

    Posted by Charles Malik | November 15, 2005, 4:28 pm
  3. “A lot has been made of the Syrian-inspired “Diesel demonstrations”

    If they want to dismiss the energy minister, I support them…

    Posted by Vox Populi - Agent Provocateur | November 15, 2005, 5:22 pm
  4. I should say that Seniora is showing his ability to maneuver around problems (he is really smart) by assigning Hizbullah’s own minister to handle the diesel issue! Either he will provide a solution and quiet the demonstration or he will show his incompetence and quit the government!

    Regarding Aoun, I think that military personnel can’t adjust to political life and it shows! Let’s see what he will hear (and what he will do later) when he will meet with the US officials.

    As long as we have a strong military, I am not worried! May God keep it together and strong!

    Posted by Ghassan | November 15, 2005, 5:24 pm
  5. People demonstrate if they feel that their participation will invigorate their own positions. The muarada demonstrations were as much fun as they were risky - this is why everyone attended, regardless of what happened to the muarada afterwards. Having said that, it looks like the novelty of large demos has worn off in Lebanon, and I don’t see anything about HA’s (and Syria’s) position to be excited about. Mustapha has hit the nail on the head.

    As for the demonstration itself, I think my wife and I have some important errands to run… feed the goldfish, something like that. Sorry we won’t be there.

    Posted by Unfrozen Caveman Linguist | November 15, 2005, 8:48 pm
  6. I must have missed something: Tishreen calls for “an orange demonstration”, and you are saying the Syrians count on Aoun to “power the demo.” I thought HA, Amal, Baath, Frangieh would be relied upon to power the demonstration. I also thought GMA had taken his distances from Damascus. Am I missing something? Is GMA the only individual with Josh Landis to have actually joined the Bashar side in the last year? I know he is not the sharper tool in the shed, but he cannot be as clueless as Landis. Pls explain.

    PA.

    Posted by Anonymous | November 15, 2005, 9:10 pm
  7. The crazy arrogance of FM “Zay Ma Heeya” political novices. You guys have had a falling out after 15 years with your boss (Syria) and you claim the FPM is pro-Syrian?

    The FPM is your teacher in Lebanese Nationalism. Since when does being in opposition to government economic policy equal to being Pro-Syrian?

    Reminds me of the days the FM used to call us pro-zionist when whe where the only ones demanding Syria leave.

    Correct me in I’m wrong, but to this day, the only political group openly calling for the implementation of 1559 is the FPM. Gen Aoun the only party leader openly asking Hizballah to disarm. Your partner Jumblatt wants them to stay armed (a state within a state).

    Saying the Syrians are relying on Aoun to fuel the protests Mustapha show’s really how niave politically you can be. A quote like this makes you along with Mr Asaad worthy front page journalists for “Al Mustaqbal” newspaper.

    I laugh at any individual who claims the FPM and Aoun are pro-Syrian. Arrogant Joseph Goebbels inspired propoganda at it’s worst. If Khaled who contributes here is really an official of the FM and running their forum, then the party or grouping is in a sad state of affairs. All that you are doing is alienating a very significant part of the Lebanese community.

    If this is what the FM has to offer Lebanon, then I am more worried now about the future.

    R.B.

    Posted by Anonymous | November 15, 2005, 11:52 pm
  8. Seniora’s move was shrewd, because HA is an ideological party, i.e. it works through rhetoric and demagogy. It wants to be both in government and above government. Both in politics and above politics and consensus. It talks about consensus and dialogue but it wants to dictate it. It talks about consensus and no majority and minority, and then runs to rallies aimed at projecting a sense of strength based on the perception of numbers. In other words, HA wants to dictate. So Seniora says, you want demagogy? OK, stand accountable to the entire people (not to your own network of cronies). Show us how you’d like to support the Diesel. You’re in government, act in government. It’s much easier to talk about poverty, “mahroumin,” “istikbar” and all that jazz on the street. But when you’re standing in the way of development, and you’re responsible, it’s a different story.

    The thing is, I think, that this HA fiasco has shown us is a good lesson for those talking about coopting ideological extremist militant groups through participation in government. Ideology and militancy (and seeking to maintain both) has not been tempered at all. In fact, at the first showing, they dump it to go back to demagogy and the street, outside consensus, and undermining the government for a transnational discourse. They’re not coopted, they seek to coopt the government into their ideological worldview! That’s precisely what the threat about 1559 is, and all the stuff about all the UN resolutions, international trial, etc. Their view of participation is cooption and dictation. In that sense, they haven’t really deviated from what they told that nitwit Helena Cobban.

    But let the onus be on them. Let them show their real colors.

    Posted by Anton Efendi | November 16, 2005, 12:48 am
  9. “The FPM is your teacher in Lebanese Nationalism.”

    Wow.

    It’s bland statements like this that take away any chance of constructive hiwar. I think its time for FPM members (and others) to get rid of this “holier than thou” attitude.

    Posted by Lazarus | November 16, 2005, 2:41 am
  10. “It wants to be both in government and above government. Both in politics and above politics and consensus.”

    This duplicity will break Hezbollah. The reason for which I don’t reject their presence in the government having is 1)to expose them as hypocrits 2)you’d make them a favour by excluding them because it will give them the excuse they need fr destabilizing the country. Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.

    Posted by Vox Populi - Agent Provocateur | November 16, 2005, 5:07 am
  11. Mustapha i wish everything will turn good. reading your very optimistic blog today was a relief.But let’s wait and see.I wish it turns like the karame protests in tripoli.No one went.
    Lazarus, you’re right my friend.FPM kiber rasson ktir. that’s why i can’t see gma as a president.The fpm has some excellent points but they consider anyone outside the fpm pro-syrian, they are simply not tolerant. They should be more flexible, this is all about being a good polititian.

    Posted by Nano | November 16, 2005, 8:04 am
  12. A propos. FPM won’t be participating in any street demos against Seniora.

    Posted by Anton Efendi | November 16, 2005, 8:51 am
  13. R.B,

    Forums like this one serve for open dialogue. Your attitude is not very constructive. I hope you can use the effort you put on personal attacks into making your point in a more civilized manner.

    If this country’s going to get out of this sensitive phase and back to being a normal boring country, we should be more open and civilised.

    MWB

    Posted by Anonymous | November 16, 2005, 9:28 am
  14. Guys,

    I do not mean personal attacks on anyone. I am a little taken by surprise and offended by persons (Particular the Fm forum guy Khaled) who are making ridiculous statements such as the FPM and Aoun are pro-Syrian. I know that my colleagues and I have been been working tirelessly for 15 years to end the Syrian occupation of Lebanon and am shocked to read untruths written by people who have no right to make such ridiculous claims.

    Maybe we at the FPM are having a little difficulty in getting our point across to you, but our point of view is plainly spelt out on our website.

    I don’t have explain my anti-syrian regime credentials, but Mustapha you’ve got to explain your statement “Syria is relying on Aoun”. This statement seems to suggest some form of co-operation. Is this what you are suggesting Mustapha?

    If you want to know more about the FPM and are stand on issues such as this, the source is surely not “Al Mustaqbal” newspaper or the FM Forum.
    Try this link for starters if you are interested.

    http://www.marhabalubnan.org/02nov05/part5.ram

    R.B.

    Posted by Anonymous | November 16, 2005, 10:27 am
  15. Robert,

    In my opinion you’re being a tad defensive; Saying that someone “relies on someone” does not imply cooperation (maybe it’s different in Australia ;) ). A lazy teacher can rely on students not showing up to skip giving a class. This borders more on wishful thinking than on actual conspiracy.

    Besides, having a Hariri Pin or the name Mustapha doesn’t make me a FMer. I’m an issues person, not a party one, and I am an “equal opportunity critic” as Tony nicely puts it. In other words, I can both Admire Aoun and Criticize him, without having to be afraid of being pigeonholed into a certain “type”. I think it is crucial that we always think critically even of the people we admire or else we’ll be just sheep, this is why i have this challenge for your Robert:

    I have repeatedly mentioned in this blog some issues where I think the FPM is better than the FM (if you still don’t know them: Role of the clergy, Civil law and secularism). My challenge to you is that you tell me one issue in which you think the FM is better than the FPM). If you can’t find one fault with GMA, then arguing with you would be a waste of time.

    Posted by Mustapha | November 16, 2005, 10:49 am
  16. I do not know why ya RB you drop down to this level of personal attacks. I have my views, I present facts and all you have to do is to reply with facts and try to convince me.. others like anton and LP managed to do so in some points…

    Maybe you ideas of facts are similar to those of HA whom MAY consider a fact when Mehlis produces a picture of Bashar pressing on the trigger button and saying cheese ..

    I am NO FM Official, I am proudly an FM supporter; and if I am a member of the moderators of the forum, that does not mean that I do not have my own views. I do not agree with some of FM’s actions (Such as alliance with WJ.)but no one is perfect; where unlike you where you do see FPM as perfect

    And if you review my latest posts on this blog, I second’s Ramzi’s point he is NOT a pro-Syrian, he is simply a Pro-Get-Me-In-That-Presidential-Palace-Already-God-Dammit,

    Posted by khaled | November 16, 2005, 12:29 pm
  17. oh and RB,

    I would like to quote MWB above : “Forums like this one serve for open dialogue. “

    I would like to invite you to participate in the FM forum; where you will notice the diversity of the users there. there are LF, HA, FM, FPM, etc..

    Unlike FPM forum (which like your comments above) are the reason of you having difficulty in getting our point across.

    In FM forum, and by testimony of many FPM members there and unlike FPM forum all views are tolerated and if someone doesnt like Hariri, he is not banned….

    I just wish you invite you to the forum and that you ask the FPM members in it about the tolerance we show and the dialouge.

    Ofcurse there are members in the FM forum who support FM and have their own views, which do not reflect the official FM stands.
    In FM forum we encourage dialouge between members rather than personal bashing.

    Posted by khaled | November 16, 2005, 12:39 pm
  18. RB,

    It is quite clear that you feel uneasy about this alliance with HA and the whole series of steps taken by GMA since the breakaway from March 14th.

    Well, hop on…

    Ex-GMA supporter

    Posted by Anonymous | November 16, 2005, 1:14 pm
  19. EX-GMA supporter

    We have enough GMA supporters, what we need is more FPM supporters. You where never an FPM supporter because no true supporter would state “Breakaway from March 14th”, as they understand the 14th March situation fully. Too many in the FPM support a persona, they need to focus on policy. What alliance are you talking about? The Election alliance of FM-HA-AMAL-PSP?

    Why is it o.k. for Bahia Harriri to align with HA/AMAL to get her chair, but our students can’t align in uni?

    Hypocrasy to the extreme.

    Mustapha, one complaint I have about the FPM - we need to be much more motivated from the bottom up. Decisions need to involve more than those at the top.

    P.S Khaled, I’m glad your not an official at the FM. Restores a little hope for hiwar in the future.

    Posted by Anonymous | November 16, 2005, 8:56 pm
  20. I’m at school at the moment and I don’t have enough time to write a nice long comment.

    However I couldn’t agree more with Ramzi, in fact I liked what he wrote so much, that I felt compelled to write this comment and show he is not the only person(with kahaled) holding these views.

    I’m not going to start bashing Aoun even though he deserves it, but facts are facts. 1- He lied about the meeting with Lahoud 2-In the last election, he made deals with every damn pro-syrian and every corrupt politician. These are undeniable facts, I’ll leave you to interpret them.

    Anyway:
    NASSIB LAHOUD FOR PRESIDENT he’s the man for the job !; if you agree post a comment saying so please.

    Posted by Anonymous | November 16, 2005, 9:04 pm
  21. Anon 8:56

    I don’t want to start a rant here, but it seems you’re so convinced that you are on the right track, despite all the criticism from within. That’s democracy.

    Keep going…

    Posted by Anonymous | November 17, 2005, 8:57 am
  22. “This blogger predicts that such demonstrations will fail miserably.” And you were right, they simply did not happen…

    Posted by Bashir | November 17, 2005, 4:47 pm

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Hello, my name is Mustapha and I blog in The Beirut Spring about Lebanese society and politics. I started in February 2005 after the killing of P.M. Rafik Hariri.

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