Is Lebanon headed towards a denouement?

Forget that clown Hossam for a moment; if you look at the Lebanese scene in the last few days, you can’t avoid the feeling that things are not looking as hopeless as they used to.

The Maronite Patriarch seemed to have abandoned President Lahhoud. The mere fact that the President was not invited to an all-heavyweight-Maronites event in Bkirki is a big Slap to the visibly irritated Baabda resident.

On the Hezbollah front, things seem to be solving themselves slowly. Shebaa will be officially declared Lebanese by the Syrians and The Party of God is bent on explaining to their fellow Lebanese their positions on all matters from Syria to diesel, all through lively TV debates. This is a sign that they care about the Lebanese institutions and have genuine intentions to reach out.

This didn’t pass unnoticed on the March 14 people, who offered an initiative to reconcile with Hezbollah. The initiative seems to be part of a larger wave of rapprochements, from Seniora and Shara’ wanting to open a new page, to Aoun and Geagea deciding to compete democratically, to the expected meeting between Aoun and Jumblat.

Everyone wants to talk to everyone. What happened? Has a deal been reached between the Saudis and the Syrians? Is it about the Syrians accepting to hand in the 5 security chiefs? If not, how can we explain this new and overwhelming positive energy?

I found this Table on The Economist‘s website. It’s part of an interesting article about how the idea of “resistance” is slowly losing grounds among Moslems everywhere. The graph shows the attitude changes in selected countries, but I was particularly impressed by how Lebanon has fared in the last three years.

According to the table, in the Summer of 2002, 73% of the Lebanese thought that it was often/sometimes ok to use violence against civilians. That figure went down to 39% in July 2005. a whopping 34-point shift.

The popularity of Bin Laden has also taken a nose dive: While 14% of Lebanese had a lot/some confidence in Bin Laden in the Summer of 2002, only 2% thought so in July 2005. (still a scary figure but compare that to Jordan’s 60 percent and you get the picture).

What do you think the reasons of such shifts are? do you think that Hariri’s Assassination had anything to do with the Lebanese figures? What other factors can we think of? Are the figures a good indicator of Hezbollah’s declining popularity?

Below is the introduction to the Lebanese Blogosphere that I’m planning to post in the Global Voices website. Your feedback is much appreciated.

Yesterday, Anton Efendi from Across the Bay, posted this picture:

It shows the Prime Minister planting a fatherly kiss on May Chidiac’s forehead. May Chidiac is the Journalist who lost a foot and an arm in a terrorist car bomb.

To Anton, this kiss symbolizes the story of Lebanon: a country that throughout its history, survived by countering devastating acts of violence and adversity with great compassion.

The Lebanese have a strange relationship with their country. Most of them leave to find opportunity somewhere else, they complain constantly of its wrongs, they are very vocal of its shortcomings and have built a reputation worldwide for self-hate. Yet at the same time, they all harbor an unbridled sense of belonging, a sense of passion for their motherland, an optimism that one day, the sun of the land of the Cedars will rise again.

It is this paradox that defines what it truly means to be Lebanese, and it is in this context that we have to look at the Lebanese Blogosphere.

My name is Mustapha, and I’ll be writing about the Lebanese side of the Blogosphere for the Global Voices project. I’ll try every week to summarize what various Lebanese Bloggers are writing, but today, please allow me to introduce you to a lovely bunch: The Lebanon Bloggers.

What makes someone a Lebanon blogger?

Some Lebanese only write about their personal lives, but deserve the title for the sheer fact of them being Lebanese. Take La La for instance, she wrote yesterday about how upset she is that her best friend is devoting her entire time to her boyfriend. If La La didn’t occasionally mention her Lebanese heritage, you couldn’t possibly tell from her blog that she’s Lebanese. The same can be said of Opinion From Bloggistan, Levantese, or The Suffragettes.

Some bloggers lay claim to the title not because they’re Lebanese, but because they write about Lebanon. One example is Micheal Totten, an American who lives in and writes about Lebanon. Another is Unfrozen-Caveman-Linguist (UCL), author of Bliss Street Journal. UCL is also an American who lived for a while in Lebanon, but who still blogs about it even after he left.

There are many Lebanon Bloggers out there, and thanks to the great effort of people like Eve, Rampurple, Delirious, Liminal, Tempest, Maldolor, Ramzi and others, they can be found in Lebanon Heart Blogs, a blog about the Lebanon bloggers.
But For the Purpose of the Global Voices project, I found it useful to introduce the bloggers who post regular commentary about current affairs. I already mentioned Anton Efendi, who writes in Across The Bay, a rather highbrow blog that sees current events as the manifestation of Machiavellian machinations of the political class.

Across The Bay has been around for a while, but a significant chunk of blogs came to light right after the colossal assassination of Rafic Hariri, Lebanon’s previous Prime Minister, and the ensuing “Cedar Revolution”. Those bloggers sometimes like to call themselves the March 14 bloggers, in reference to the day where the Lebanese from all sects and regions stood together to ask for The Truth and for the Syrians to leave.

Raja and Doha from The Lebanese Bloggers, Lebanon.profile from Lebanese Political Journal, and Mustapha from The Beirut Spring (yours truly), started their blogs right after the Hariri Assassination.
This is how The Lebanese Bloggers explain the raison-d’etre of their blog:

This blog was created to honor the memory of heroes of all the Lebanese sects who were assassinated for their patriotic stands…. May God bless their souls and bless Lebanon.

Other bloggers immediately followed. While they don’t see eye to eye on some issues, they write with obvious passion and strong wit. Kais author of From Beirut To The Beltway, Carine from Chercheuse D’or, Vox from The Federal Republic of Lebanon (who also writes in French), Lazarus from Letters Apart, Ramzi from Ramzi’s Blah Blah, Jose Wales from Lebanonesque, Maya in her space and Abu Takla all have their distinctive personalities and styles.

Those and many more constitute the wonderful world of the Lebanon Bloggers. You will hopefully hear from them all soon.

Some copycat Syrian “Images”

Below is a series of images from “demonstrations” in Syria, compared with where they were inspired from. It shows just how much difference there is between a true longing for liberty and freedom, and an imposed one from above.

1- Check the difference between those two pictures. The Lebanese Politicians have sincere emotions on their faces, they’re visibly upset and they visibly have their lives on the line. Compare that to the I-hope-i’m-standing-well posture of their Syrian counterparts:

2- See the difference between a truely dynamic Lebanese popular expression and army-like discipline in Syria:

3-No Comment:

Want to see more? do you miss March 14? There are 628 pictures here.

This is what hope looks like:


May’s Appearance on TV was a necessary boost to a lot of people who are starting to lose morale, to people who are starting to lose confidence in the future of Lebanon.
Watching her talk with her trademark smile, telling us that she’ll be back soon is a very powerful symbol.

May was saying: You can take my arm, you can take my foot, but you can never take away my smile.

Thank you May for letting us know what true resistance means.

David Duke, former leader in the KKK (Klu Klux Klan) and author of My Awakening (a book about why white Americans should have equal rights as their black counterparts) goes to Syria to express his support for the Assad Regime. Another Brilliant PR move by Syria’s Baathists. And we thought that we couldn’t find anyone as stupid as George Galloway.

The Lebanese government is failing miserably in the propaganda war

You know that your government is failing in its propaganda war when your enemy starts using your own message against you. (This is the second time Israel does so)

If Mr. Seniora had been saying all these things since the beginning, Israel wouldn’t have dared to write that leaflet. But because our government ignored the propaganda war, many Lebanese are now put in an awkward position of finding their opinions voiced in a piece of paper thrown on us like dogs by Israel. Talk about adding insult to injury.

My Friend Jose-wales from Lebanonesque said it best in his comments on my previous post.

[Hezbollah] are framing the debate or lack thereof. Their opponents have to turn the tables around.
When they say “US slave”, say “Iranian/Syrian slave”.
When they say “resistance” say “sovereignty and security of the people and nation”.
They say “Shebaa” tell em to go to Syria and get us the paper work.
When they say “fight Israel”, say “open the Golan front”.
Better yet, say those things before they open their mouths. Let them respond, put them on the defensive.

I hope it’s not too late now. Hezbollah has pre-empted us , no matter what we now say, they’ll say that we’re talking like Israel!

Does Hariri-style centrism work?

Yesterday, In the ceremony of unveiling a statue of our “Independence President” Bshara el Khoury, P.M. Seniora made a speech in which he said:

Our movement is one of action, action towards consensus and consent, towards the spirit of political compromise that was achieved by the great men of our independence

He further explained that this was the philosophy of the Late P.M Rafik Hariri, one of inclusion, not exclusion, of dialogue, not confrontation. In the end, P.M. Seniora concluded that our history taught us that Hariri’s kind of centrism is the only way Lebanon can be developed and built.

Contrast Seniora’s statement with what William Buckley, the godfather of today’s conservative America, wrote some time ago:

“Middle of the road qua middle of the road is politically, intellectually and morally repugnant,”

Mr. Buckley’s philosophy, faithfully carried out by Carl Rove today, is one of active polarization, of confrontation, of a never-ending tug-of-war, of pushing your agenda through by sticking to your guns.
Buckley’s way was the exact opposite of Hariri’s, yet it was so effective it changed the entire landscape in Washington, from one dominated by liberals, to one dominated by conservatives; The Economist has a nice way of putting it:

Throw a stone in Washington and you have a better than even chance of hitting a conservative intellectual. Switch on cable-television and you are lucky if you can escape seeing a conservative pundit.

In Lebanon today, our Prime Minister is trying to sell us the Hariri centrist line in a time where we need confrontation more than ever. It is unclear for instance, how talking with Hezbollah will disarm them, or talking to Aoun will convince him to let go of the presidency. Seniora seems even more benign than the late Hariri, because he’s older, speaks softer, looks more harmless and has a better poker face. But is centrism really the best way to go about politics in Lebanon?

Those who advocate dialogue always say that we are living in delicate times, that we have to avoid all kinds of adversity to be able to reach to safety.
Fine, but one should also remember that our wariness of adversity is exaggerated because of our long years of war. We have once been burnt so we’re now scared of getting close to anything that’s shiny because it might burn us. Whatever happened to “everything that doesn’t kill us is makes us stronger” or to the principle of democracy correcting itself?. Can’t our system handle any form of confrontation without having the specter of war hover over our heads?

The other argument for dialogue is that it actually gets popularity and it works.
A lot of people like to say that P.M. Hariri bought his popularity with money, but that’s untrue. Mr. Hariri was genuinely popular because of his perceived level-headedness and moderation. He managed to build the country by avoiding any form of confrontation with the Syrians. Besides, proponent say that if centrism didn’t work, P.M. Seniora wouldn’t be the one undergoing constant attack from all parties today (a sign that he’s making a difference).

Some people even say that Hariri-Style moderation is just a mask for cold-blooded cunning. N’oula Nassif, an Annahar editorialist, said on a T.V. program today that Seniora is publicly pursuing dialogue with the President, but is privately satisfied that the lifeline he’s giving him is shielding him from complete isolation, which lets Lahhoud stay as a weak president and further strengthen the (Moslem) P.M’s power.

I personally haven’t made up my mind yet. I sometimes seethe with anger at Seniora’s inaction and bonté, only to realize a week later that it was the proper course to take. But Hezbollah keeps getting on my nerves, and I can’t see Seniora protecting my loved-ones from them.

Martyr Hariri talked till he dropped…literally. I wish Mr. Seniora could be a bit more firm.

If Syria wants to liberate her farms, she should do it herself.

Yet another round of pointless attacks by Hezbollah to ‘liberate’ the Shebaa Farms, which, according to the UN, is Syrian territory under Israeli occupation.

Hezbollah has always claimed that such attacks are based on “field considerations”, in other words, the political situation in Lebanon and Syria doesn’t have anything to do with them. Nonsense. The attacks always happen in very sensitive contexts, like for instance when a Lebanese Prime Minister is at an international donor conference.

But most Lebanese agree that Hezbollah is directed from outside. Syria and Iran to be specific. When Hezbollah attacked last year, Israel retaliated by striking Syrian targets, causing Hezbollah’s Gun to fall silent for a long time. Israel learned that attacking Lebanese Electricity firms and infrastructure doesn’t stop Hezbollah, only attacking Damascus does so.

If Hezbollah’s real aim is to get the Shebaa farms back, it should support the border demarcation process instead of calling PM Seniora a traitor just for bringing it up.

All this on the eve of Independence Day. How ironic. Let’s watch and see how the political class reacts.

A picture released by Annahar today reminds us of how insolent our occupiers have always been. It shows Turkish officials posing for the camera, smirking, proud of having hanged freedom-loving Lebanese nationalists back then.

You can find the picture on Annahar’s main page.