Aoun’s Road To Baabda
Michel Aoun can be the President. But first he needs to realign his strategy.
On the wake of the Mehlis report that points the fingers to associates of President Lahhoud, Calls are coming in from all directions for the President to resign. The next big thing in Lebanese politics is finding a successor; this is arguably the most difficult political challenge since the Syrians have left.
Constitutionally, The Lebanese President has to be a Maronite Christian, and to understand the state of the Maronites in Lebanon, one can learn a lot by looking at the Democratic party in the US.
The victory of President George W. Bush in the American elections in 2004 has divided the Democratic Party into two factions:
On one hand, you have the Clintonites (After Bill Clinton): The Democrats that believe that, in order to be electable, the party has to move a bit to the right (in other words, become more like the Republicans). They are therefore less hostile to free trade, less gang-ho about abortion rights and employees’ rights, and more hawkish on Iraq and Security.
On the other hand, you have the Deaniacks (After Howard Dean). They disagree with the Clintonites over strategy. They think that the best way to be elected in 2008 is to do exactly what Mr. Bush did: Rally your core base to turn out in great numbers to vote for you, instead of reaching out to the center. The Deaniacks believe that they represent the party’s soul better than the Clintonites. They call themselves “the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party”. They are idealistic and uncompromising.
Unfortunately, although the Deaniacks do represent the Democratic Party better, their strategy is flawed; it is a widely acknowledged fact that, for every Liberal in the US, there are two conservatives. The Clintonites, although not “authentic”, are more likely to be elected.
Back to Lebanon.
Michel Aoun is the Deaniack of the Maronites; he is their most representative, and he speaks in their name. His main argument is this: If Nabih Berri, a fairly hardliner Shiaa representative, got to become Speaker of the House, why shouldn’t the Maronite one (himself), become President? Following that argument, Aoun, like the Deaniacks, is choosing to rally his base instead of reaching out to the others. If you noticed, Aoun is speaking more these days of “Christian representation” and less of his trademark “secular state”.
But, like the Deaniacks, Mr. Aoun’s strategy is flawed: for every Maronite in this country, there’s a Sunni and a Shiaa. In Mr. Nabih Berri’s case, The Sunnis and the Shias have both approved of him. But Aoun is universally loathed outside of his base and is considered by many to be provocative.
However, unlike in the Democratic Party, someone has to emerge as a President from the Christian camp. Aoun could do wisely and chose to reach out. By doing that he can isolate his most vocal critics (like Jumblat) and appeal to the more moderates (Hariri). If not, he’ll have to live to see one of his lesser co-religionists become his President.
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Hello, my name is Mustapha and I blog in The Beirut Spring about Lebanese society and politics. I started in February 2005 after the killing of P.M. Rafik Hariri.
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Remember during the campaign when Dean shouted ? That infamous noise he made was the beggining of the end for this fine man.
I’d love to hear Aoun do that.
Funny that you mentioned that Wael.
This was one of my earliest posts. Look at the graphic.
Mustapha,
do you think it is fair to say that Aoun is loathed outside his base? Firstly, other Christian communities such as the Orthodox and the Greek Catholics voted in their vast majorities for the FPM. Also, ina recent presidential pole, GMA was the most popular choice for President among Shites that where poled.
Would it be fair to say that the campaign against GMA and the FPM undertaken by Jumblatt and the FM have mobilised their bases against GMA.
You need to be a little more balanced and look at the actions of the FM etc in this case.
Perhaps you should ask that they work to reach out to each other and perhaps meet half way.
R.B.
You also forget one thing Mustapha:
GMA is aginst deposing the president in the streets, but how come he is with using the streets to opose appointing anyone but him?
his answer to the above question is the Makam Rease Slogan..
This slogan is and will be used in the following way:
If the streets are used to depose Lahoud, then the Makam Re2ase is at risk; thus the streets demos shouldnt be used
If any president other than GMA will be elected, then GMA will use the streets by calling for demos as again the Makam Rease is at risk..
It all has to do with his own aspiration of becoming a president, it doesnt really has to do with the good will of the country, as if it were, he would have nominated a moderate one, but we tend to forget.. according to him there is no other moderate than him
khaled,
what do you mean by moderate? In what sense is GMA not moderate?
I am really interested to know why GMA is not a good candidate for Lebanon (as opposed to for X,Y or Z). I would like to know specific reasons not generic ones like not moderate, crazy, no compromise. I am not trying to be sarcastic, I am really trying to understand more, things that I might have missed. I read his political program and really liked it. I am really naive at discovering hidden red flags about someone.
Thanks,
FAZ
FAZ
My answer is in Mustafas post we are both commenting on
Yeah sure dude: it’s high time that maverick Christian officer made some substantial concessions! And fast for that matter! … or else … WE [read: “Sheikh” Saad, Waleed “Beck” and their unholy Mafioso-style “protector” the Servant of the Two Holly Shrines or whatever name the Saudi despot is going by these days] will handpick Johnny ‘Abdo or Sameer Geagea, or Sittrida’s chauffeur or any H’Maronite slave of ours!
I mean our beloved Wahhabi/Neo-conservative fuhrer “sheikh” Saaduldînne could take umbrage at Gen Mitchell Aoun’s (so typically “Nasrani” might I add!) arrogance…and that would be real bad for his cholesterol level… the man is so delicate…just like his late father…
“Saad you’re the best FM leader I have ever had the pleasure and the privilege to serve, Sir!”
:-))
Today, as the barrel of oil stands at 60 dollars, diplomatic luminaries and other intellectual heirs to his highness prince Metternich such as Lebanon’s “sheikh” Saad Hariri and Saudi Arabia’s “prince” Saud Al-Faysal are flamboyantly feted and “offered” the red carpet treatment from Albuquerque to Bkerké! …
Not to mention Al-Nahar’s legendary Editor-in-Chief Ghassan Tueni who wrote a lengthy editorial last month presenting his “strategic vision of an emerging Arabo-Indo-Asian socio-economic bridge into the 22nd century connecting Riyadh to the world” [??] and the correspondingly “natural role of Saudi monarch Abdalla Ibn Abdul Aziz as supreme standard-bearer of a modern, relaxed form of Pan-Arabism” [sic]
I guess Ghassan Tueni and other Lebanese journalists will keep on churning out Arabian Caesars as long as those Saudi petrodollars flow generously!
Long before the mercantile cum collaborationist days of MP Saad-Uldînne Hariri and Prime Minister Fuad Seniorita, another famous Middle-Eastern merchant turned politician named Judas Iscariot also sold his soul for cash: his story didn’t end very happily though…
Eternally Yours in Liberty,
Dr Victorino de la Vega
Chair of the Thomas More Center for Middle East Studies
http://www.mideastmemo.blogspot.com/
khaled,
There are only two paragraphs at the end about GMA.
So I’am assuming he is not moderate because of this statement
Aoun, like the Deaniacks, is choosing to rally his base instead of reaching out to the others. If you noticed, Aoun is speaking more these days of “Christian representation” and less of his trademark “secular state”.
Well if this is true then you have a point. But on the other hand why does he need to really his base, I thought the majority of his base already elected him ?
oh, phuleeez stop with the Deniac and Clintonite comparison! I’m not sure you know what you’re talking about. For an American living in Washington DC, it’s nausiating and completely off the mark. There are no two kinds of democrats in the US. There are no two parties in the US. We have two teams, the Redskins and the Cowboys, and the ‘fans’ are split in half supporting soundbite politics run by the same crooked corporations, pharmaceuticals, and chrurches–on both sides. Anyone with any real political/historical knowledge of the country is on the fringes as Greens, Independents, whatever.
It’s all theatrics.
The last thing the Lebanese people should want for there country is a system that compares to America’s government today. This country is not turning out like it was supposed to, and it’s intentions for Lebanon are driven by Israeli interests..let’s not be fooled.
The Mehlis report gave the Lebanese no more than they wanted to hear. That should be suspicion enough!
Ruby,
You probably live in the US but you don’t seem to know much about the politics there.
I would suggest you read this Economist Article.
“If you don’t have a subscription, this paragraph can enlighten you:
the Democrats are split down the middle on everything from Iraq to gay marriage. Centrists believe in working with business, protecting family values and fighting terrorism. “We believe that the September 11th attacks changed America for ever,” says the Democratic Leadership Council (DLC), “and defeating terrorism is the supreme military and moral mission of our time.” Liberal activists believe the opposite: that corporations are bad, family values are hogwash, and the war on terror a delusion.
Worse still, the wrong side is getting the upper hand. A new generation of angry young activists have used their mastery of the internet to tilt the party to the left. Groups such as Moveon.org (which claims 3.3m members) and blogs such as the Daily Kos (which has thousands of partisans venting daily) now colour the whole tone of the political debate on the left.”
I’m with Dr. Vic’s version of the “YeeHaa!” on this one. Such tomfoolery all around. Even so, Aoun may have been caught up in the moment at one point in time, but he does not seem too self-absorbed not to notice the potential instability of his position. He is yet to embarrass himself as badly as our man in question.
As for Ruby’s version of same, that just sounded like another liberal wannabe lobbyist throwing in the towel. I understand that living in DC is tough, but puh-leez…
You have it all wrong…Aoun is not saying that since Shia’s picked Nabih Berri, he should be picked because he represents Christians, this is a bunch of propaganda trying to make the FPM seem sectarian at heart.
The fact of the matter is, that after the Parliamentary elections, three powers emerged: The FM and their allies, Hezbollah-Berri alliance, and the FPM and their allies. Hezbollah-Berri got the speaker of Parliament, the FM got the position of Prime Minister, and so therefore naturally, the FPM should get the last remaining spot, which is the Presidency. If the FM and their sidekicks don’t want to give them the Presidency,then let them take it, but give the FPM the position of Prime Minster. So basically, it is not about the Presidency itself, but rather that all three major powers in the country should have one of the three top positions.
To not give the FPM one of the top positions would be to ignore the desires and opinions of many Lebanese, and would only concentrate more power in the hands of the FM and their allies, which would be majorly over represented if they got the Presidency spot as well.
How cute is this? Guess who Hizbullah invited to “Jerusalem Day” ceremonies!? And look at Walid Bek! Very cute…