Sunday, June 7

How To Follow The Lebanese Elections On Twitter

Nothing like twitter to follow a live process involving ordinary people. This post will hopefully help you navigate the Lebanese twittosphere to keep your fingers on the Lebanese pulse.

- First, let’s get my shameless self promotion out of the way: Do make sure you follow my own twitter account @beirutspring. I am following almost 400 Lebanese people, and keep looking to retweet interesting posts. You can also look at the people I’m following and follow them

- Make sure you’re following @sharek961 , which is a volunteer based organization that maps the Lebanese elections live on their website. @sharek961 actively retweets all the reports it’s getting from the field. (Full disclosure: I volunteered to design their site)

- Go to http://search.twitter.com and look for #lebanonelections. It sort of became the conventional tag, but some are still using #lebaneseelections and #lebelections. If your’re a twitterer yourself and want to file a report, don’t forget to tag it (who knows, we can even make it a twitter trending topic)

- Other notable Twitterers to follow: @nowlebanon , @sharek961, @meetsamer, @hibz , @LB_ELECTIONS_09 , @abuhatem .

There, I hope that was useful :)

3 comments Cool Stuff

Thursday, April 16

Now Updating From Twitter @beirutspring

Follow @beirutspring on twitter to get bits and pieces and opinions from the news in Lebanon. More details below..

Here’s the problem:

There are very important events taking or about to take place in Lebanon (Elections, Egypt-Hezbollah spat, attacks against our army. ), and yet, as you noticed, I can’t seem to find the time to collect my thoughts and discuss things with you guys over here. For the record, that really sucks.

So what’s a Lebanese with many thoughts on his mind and little time on his hands to do? Abu Kais, friend and venerable blogger has pulled the plug. I thought about doing the same but didn’t get the heart to do it. This is why I’ll be doing the next best thing: I’ll be updating from Twitter.

Twitter is a great medium to express and share fast thoughts and Ideas. It conveys the message, suggests links and opens the door for a discussion. It’s like blogging on a smaller scale and does the trick for me. It’s great for fast updates in days of crises and excellent for finding and suggesting cool links about Lebanon.

This doesn’t mean that I’ll stop updating beirutspring.com. Every now and then, I’ll be writing normal posts over here, and the best way to know about them would be following me on Twitter.

So go ahead, if you don’t have an account, create one, it’s worth it. Follow me @beirutspring and I’ll follow you too.

For those who still prefer old media, you can always email me to beirutspring@gmail.com for your thoughts and suggestions..

Post a comment Miscalleneous

Thursday, March 5

Worried About A Damascus Washington Rapprochement? You Needn’t Be

Hillary Clinton is getting out of her way to allay Lebanese fears over an American Syrian dialogue.

Bummer. It turns out Hillary Clinton is just Like George W. Bush after all. Or so it must be what’s going through the heads of the Iranians and the Syrians right now. The “axis of evil” states are suddenly coming to the realization that President Obama won’t be so cuddly after all.

How could the Iranians not be concerned, as they watch America’s top diplomat all but ignore their darling Hamas while showering cash and praise on their nemesis Mahmood Abbas, the President of the Palestinian authority? How could they not be queasy as they watch Hillary’s chumminess with the Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, a man they worked so hard with their proxies to discredit..

Not that things are better for the Syrians. Bashar El Assad thought that he was hearing great news: Two top washington officials are to be dispatched for talks. Finally, they’re talking to us! He must have thought. But then came the shocker: One of the two is Jeffrey Feltman. Yes, that Jeffrey Feltman, the same “Godfather” of the Lebanese Cedar Revolution, the man who worked hard to kick them out of their cherished Lebanon. How could anything good come out of that man?

You see, this is the American way of telling the Lebanese: Don’t worry, we got your back. And just in case you still don’t get the message, or are still in anyway concerned about a deal that will sell you out, Feltman and Shapiro will visit Beirut twice: Once before heading to Syria and once after coming back. They will also have dinner with M.P. Saad Hariri, a man whose movement attacks Syria anytime it gets the chance to.

Add to that a sprinkle of symbolism for the most die-hard of conspiracists: American officials made it clear that the visit “Will not take place on March 8″, the date in which hundreds of thousands of Pro-Syrians marched in Beirut in 2005. Ahh, the Fletman effect has begun…

In other words, while many Arab and Iranian commentators will fret about how America “still doesn’t get it”, the Lebanese should try -for a change- to shelve their paranoia.

24 comments News Analysis

Tuesday, January 27

Alarabiya is Not Aljazeera, and It Matters.

By granting his first interview to Alarabiya –the pan-Arab underdog– instead of Aljazeera, Mr. Obama is already signaling that he is taking sides in the Arab world’s divide. 

While reading the coverage of Mr. Obama’s interview with Alarabiya on American news websites and blogs, I’ve noticed  that an important angle of the story was missing. People either extolled Mr. Obama’s “brave” and “audacious” overture  or criticized his supposed naiveté and implied that by granting an Arab station an interview, he was somehow selling out Americans. 

Missing in all that coverage (and apologies to those I might have missed) was a small detail that has the potential to add texture and subtlety to an otherwise straightforward story. 

You see, Al-Arabiya is not Aljazeera. In fact it is the anti-Aljazeera. In that proverbial divide between moderate and fanatic Arabs, “moderates” (those who are more interested in shopping and trading than killing Americans and Jews) generally prefer Al-Arabiya’s milder narratives and its overall friendliness to the west. Hisham Melhem, the Lebanese anchor who conducted the interview is a supporter of the “Cedar revolution”, the pro-western movement that sacked the Syrians from Lebanon 3 years ago. Moreover, Alarabiya is funded by the Saudi King who is leading the so-called moderate front in a cold war pitting realists  against hardliners who are lead by Iran. 

Alarabiya is the Arab MSNBC to Aljazeera’s FOX News, and President Obama’s granting Alarabiya his first interview instead of the slightly more watched Aljazeera is the media equivalent of him calling Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and shunning Hamas’ leader Ismail Hanié.

In short: While President Obama’s interview looks on its surface like an “opening up” to the Arab world, with all the due emphasis on mutual respect and change of course, it is also a pointed snub and a shrewd maneuver in the heart of the war of ideas taking place in the Arab world.

32 comments News Analysis

Monday, December 29

Hezbollah’s Predicament: To Join or Not to Join?

Whether or not to add a Lebanese front to the Gaza war is a very difficult decision for Hezbollah.

So far, Mr. Nassrallah is only using his “soft power”. Relying on his prestige and influence among Arab masses, he urged Egyptians to break open the walls of Rafah with their “bare chests”. Whether  his prime-time TV address makes a difference is not clear yet, but Hezbollah has a big question in its mind at this moment: Should it join the war and open another front?

While some might find the question easy to answer, Hezbollah strategists and game theorists have their work cut out for them; not joining the war is risky because it would demonstrate that the 2006 war did put an end to Hezbollah’s ability to poke Israel when it wants to relieve Hamas. That would undermine Hezbollah’s entire narrative of victory against Israel in 2006 and show weakness.

At the same time, joining the war isn’t easy. Lebanon is not yet ready for a re-run of July 2006, and Mr. Nassrallah knows that the Israelis would be even more deadly and ruthless this time around. The Lebanese President and the minister of Defense pointedly made the point from the southern border that while we should all vocally protest the Israeli aggression on Gaza, Lebanon is no launching pad for Missiles.

There are other reasons why Hezbollah should think twice before joining Hamas in its fight. The cheap price of oil has put a financial strain on Hezbollah’s main backer Iran. This means that reimbursing people whose houses were destroyed will not be easy this time, let alone replenishing their stocks of expensive missiles.

Also, by joining the war Hezbollah risks postponing Lebanese parliamentary elections scheduled for early 2009. As things stand, Hezbollah and its allies have a decent shot at gaining a majority in the parliament and rolling back last last 3 years of anti-Syrian dominance. Politically, Hezbollah is right where it wants to be at this moment and the last thing it needs is a war that might compromise its internal standing.

So what is a Party of God to do? 

Do what Sayyed Hassan is doing: Use strong rhetoric and secretly hope that international and Arab pressure will end the war as soon as possible. If all else fails, provoke the Israelis into doing something stupid in Lebanon and pounce on the opportunity. After all, as they all say: “They started this!”

19 comments News Analysis

Monday, December 22

Syrian Embassy In Hamra. Bold Or Clumsy?

The Syrians are in for a wild ride with their choice of embassy location. But Hamra could also provide rewards to Damascus.

Everyone loves Hamra (Reuters)

When countries choose locations for their embassies in other territories, one of the major factors deciding their choices is the level of hostility they could expect from that country in the future. This is why American embassies are isolated fortresses in the Arab world, while Swedish and Canadian embassies often occupy regular flats in big cities.

So when Syria chose Hamra, the bustling quasi-bohemian Beirut high street, to host its temporary embassy in Beirut, it wanted to send a strong, confident signal to the rest of the world: We are in friendly territory.

And yet, the location can be fraught with minefields for Damascus. Hamra is a walking distance from two American universities with a high concentration of anti-Syrian students. Anti Syrian demonstrations (say in the event of an assassination) and counter pro-Syrian ones would fill up the relatively narrow streets and bring the entire already-busy neighborhood to a standstill.

The Syrians could yet change the location if it proves too unbearable for comfort. The temporary nature of the Hamra location could prove to be a test balloon. But for now, Damascus is hopeful that the Lebanese will put the Syrian ambassador in their hearts. If not, then perhaps accept his presence in Beirut’s heart.

So what’s your take on this? Syrian embassy in Hamra: Good or Bad?

15 comments Lebanese politics

Wednesday, December 17

Can Lebanon Handle Those Fancy Planes?

The average Lebanese are cheering the Russian deal. But a closer look should give them pause for thought.

It was by all means a feat by our Minister of defense Mr. Elias El Murr. As he toasted his celebratory vodka with his Russian counterpart, he must have predicted how the Lebanese, people and media, would be overjoyed by the promised spectacle of modern fighter jets wearing a cedar tree.

Politicians are rushing to embrace the story. To March 14, it’s “proof to Syria that Lebanon is an independent and sovereign country” as the Hariri-owned Al-Mustaqbal newspaper put it. To the Hezbollah and Arabist types, it’s an act of liberation from an Israeli-imposed ban on weapon sales to this country.

But regardless of which point of view you come from, it will not be hard for you to notice –after the party is over and the corks are swept away– that the Mig-29s could be a meal that the Lebanese will find hard to digest.

Not withstanding the political headache of of assigning pilots and staff to the liking of all sides, the economics of such a deal are ominous; as the Lebanese daily Assafir puts it:

هل نحن على مستوى الدخول في منظومة متكاملة، تبدأ مع إرسال نحو ثلاثين ضابطاً من الجيش اللبناني على الأقل للتدرب كطيارين على الـ»ميغ ٢٩«. وعلى خط مواز، إرسال نحو مئة من أفراد الجيش للتدرب في روسيا كفنيين، يؤمّنون الصيانة الكاملة لهذا النوع من الطائرات. كما أن هذا الأمر يوجب على الجيش اللبناني صيانة القواعد الجوية أو تأهيلها، وبناء الهنغارات اللازمة لمبيت المقاتلات وأعمال الصيانة لها.

Translation: Are we capable of setting up an entire (military) system that begins with sending 30 Lebanese army officers -at least- to train as pilots for the Mig-29s, in addition to one hundred soldiers tasked with learning how to fully maintain such fighter jets? Not to mention the necessity of refurbishing and maintaining Lebanese airbases and hangars that would accommodate those planes.

The deal specifically states that the costs of maintaining and training the Migs should be borne by the Lebanese state. The same state, mind you, that is struggling to pay for teachers and workers and whose finances are so strained we had to beg for ParisII donors and their humiliating strings.

So the costs are high but the benefits should be worth it, right? I’m not too sure. Will 10 Mig-29s be sufficient to affect the balance of power with Israel? Would they present any form of military deterrence? What guarantees that the Israelis won’t just wipe them out in one preemptive strike like it did to the Egyptian Air Force back in 1967?

In other words, the Lebanese are about to take ownership of very expensive showpieces that would most likely just end up lying around.

20 comments News Analysis