Friday, August 8

Israel Might Do Something…Anything

With a wounded pride, an angry public, widespread recrimination and a general election looming, the neighbor down south is very likely to make an irrational and dangerous move.

Will anything interrupt Jbeil’s summer peace? (photo source)

To watch Lebanon today is to see the closest it’s gotten to an oasis of peace since 2005. Tourists are flocking in droves to a rare peaceful summer, business is booming, big plans are being made, parliament will convene after two years of absense and politicians are talking with their bitterest of foes. It would seem almost foolish to believe that a neighboring country is sharpening its knife and making loud threats.

But that is precisely what’s happening. At issue is Hezbollah’s stated aim of shooting down Israeli spy-planes over Lebanese territory. That combined with the perceived “tipping point” in Lebanon (a situation where Hezbollah is now supposedly controlling the Lebanese government) and the brouhaha surrounding Kuntar’s release have sent Israeli politicians and media running around like headless chickens.

Israeli politicians are trying to exert pressure on the UN to enforce resolution 1701 which mandates a curb on the smuggling of weapons to Hezbollah.. They say they’ll do all they can to prevent advanced anti-aircraft missiles from reaching Hezbollah and they don’t have any reason to bluff: Israeli politicians are under immense pressure to prove to their depressed citizens that they’re not weak.

The Israelis seem to be spoiling for another war. Ehud Barak insinuated that Olmert lost the 2006 war because of his “lack of experience”, Tsivi Livni is trying to wear Sharon’s mantle and warmongering Benjamin Natanyahu is leading in the polls.

Unfortunately, if a new war is to happen, the Israelis are trying to make clear that not only Hezbollah will pay the price, but all of Lebanon. A war that will “raze Lebanon to the ground” as one Israeli commentator puts it will be foolish and irrational, but that won’t make it any less of a disaster.

7 comments News Analysis

Thursday, August 7

The Beirut Spring Is Now A Family

Please welcome the two new sister blogs of the Beirut Spring: Beirut Spring Business and Beirut Spring Tabloid.

While my wife still has five more months to add a member to my own family, my blog -after a few weeks of fussy tinkering- has now added two.

The reason is simple. Not everyone here likes to hear about Mika or see pictures of the Lebanese President’s daughter’s wedding. Yet at the same time, not everyone likes it when I write about the government’s economic policy or the Lebanese banking sector. In other words, this is when the invisible mouth of Adam smith told me to specialize.

The Beirut Spring Tabloid is just that: A look into the stuff you usually see in the back of a newspaper. Trivial, outrageous, scandalous and sometimes raunchy material that many of us secretly love. The Beirut Spring Business on the other hand takes the other end of the seriousness spectrum; in it we get a chance to discuss important matters without being distracted by politics. The original blog will keep doing what it does best: Politics.

The new blogs are young, and God knows I could use a lot of help with new material. So should any of you channel his or her inner economist or sleazeball, please don’t hesitate to send your contributions or ideas for posts to mustapha [at} beirutspring {dot] com.

Meanwhile, I’d love to hear your feedback. Is there anything you don’t like? Is there anything I can do better? Any ideas for even more sections (like for example: the environment)? Also please email me for more suggestions…

4 comments Miscalleneous

Wednesday, August 6

General Petraeus’ Visit To Lebanon. Protocol Or More?

The American General who arguably turned the situation around for the Americans in Iraq is now visiting Beirut. How significant is his visit?

President Sleiman gives a reserved handshake (AP)

General Petraeus’ visit to Beirut can be just a matter of procedure. The man is set soon to be the head of the US Central Command, the arm of the military that is responsible for U.S. operations and troops in the Middle East and Central Asia, a region to which Lebanon belongs.

Yet the surprise visit is also likely to raise speculations. After all, wasn’t General David Petraeus the man who oversaw the putting down of the Sadr Militia in Iraq? Thanks to Gen. Petraeus, the Iraqi Hezbollah-wannabe finally decided to lay down its weapons and become a purely political movement. Isn’t this the future America sees for Hezbollah too?

Moreover, Does Mr. Petraeus’ visit have anything to do with Mr. Saad Hariri’s surprise visit to Iraq last month, in which he met with high officials?

In a sense, what General Petraeus represents is the anti-Iran-Syria-Hezbollah-Hamas’ narrative of an America stumbling goofily in the Middle East. He is anathema to the forces of “rejection” in the region and is likely to provoke a wave of ad-hominem attacks from Hezbollah-friendly media.

To the extent Hezbollah fears facing the destiny of the Sadr militias, the venom in covering the General’s visit will be high. If on the other hands Assafir and Al-Akhbar left the man alone, we will then know for sure that the visit was just one of protocol.

11 comments News Analysis

Monday, August 4

Guest Writer: Why It Matters That Mika Is Not Lebanese

Someone finally found something worthwhile to be said about the “Lebanese” artist who gave a few concerts in Lebanon last week.

Nadim K. over at Tajaddod youth reminds us that because of an antiquated Lebanese law, Mika, the celebrated “Lebanese” artist, never got the Lebanese nationality simply because his father wasn’t Lebanese.

Those who thought the singer who entertained thousands last week in Martyrs Square was Lebanese are mistaken.

Indeed, Mika was born in Beirut to an American father and Lebanese mother: Lebanese law does not allow Lebanese women to pass down nationality to their children.

So the brilliant artist who should be (and would like to be) representing our country abroad, cannot.

Another more tragic consequence of our unfair nationality laws is this account (taken from l’Orient le Jour)-my translation-:

I am 31 years old, I was born and I live in Lebanon. My mother is Lebanese and my father who died, was an achouri Christian from Iraq, moved to Lebanon in the middle of the last century having obtained from the Lebanese authorities provisional papers in the form of a pass which I inherited. I know by heart every corner of Achrafieh, Dekouané, Nabba, Sin el Fil, Dora, Hamra, Jounieh, Zahle, Saida… I found work several times but as soon as my employers were unable to provide me a work permit, I was fired. Since then, my mother decided to borrow money to open a supermarket where I could finally make a living. I began to feel adult, independent, happy. I met a girl whom I fell in love and we decided to marry. Everything was going well until the day when her brothers realized that having a father with a card “taht qayd al dars”, our children may find themselves without a nationality, cursed by birth, because a Lebanese woman cannot give her nationality to her children, whatever the circumstances. My fiancee decided to break her commitment to marriage. I am back to my scourged fate. My life is a series of misfortunes. Some say, “your maternal grandfather should have adopted you.” Thank you, I would answer, it’s too late, my grandfather has died now and nobody had thought of this before. I tried to leave for Europe where an old aunt of mine lives, but it was impossible to obtain a visa with my provisional papers. I advised by some to hide in the hold of a ship and declare myself a “refugee” on a more lenient land. I did not dare, I was afraid that this illegal act would only lead me to jail for God knows how many months or years. My mother feels terrible to be powerless. She recently knocked on all doors, even very senior officials, to try to find a “wasta”. She is ready to do everything she is asked in order to obtain a Lebanese passport for me. She often gets the response: this law has been applied to prevent Palestinian men from marrying Lebanese women and becoming ex officio Lebanese themselves and their children born to this mixed marriage. Is this a convincing argument? I doubt it. Knowing that when a Palestinian woman marries a Lebanese man, their children have the right to Lebanese nationality!

Whatever the reason, the Women’s blood right has been removed! Lebanese wake up, claim your rights to protect you and protect your children. You are 50% of votes in the country. In a few months you will head to the ballot box. Vote for those who publicly promise to defend women’s rights.

Youssef Taht-qayd-Eldar

The time for change is long overdue.

(this article can also be found at the TY’s blog)

10 comments Plain Talking

Who Killed Mohammad Suleiman?

The Syrian President’s “right hand” on security was assassinated. Who killed him and why?

President Assad was in Iran when it happened. (Reuters)

According to a Syrian source for Alsharkalawsat, Mr. Suleiman who was assassinated a few days ago belonged to an exclusive set of high-echelon officials in the Syrian regime who actually held a large amount of state and military secrets. The source also said that Mr. Assad had a lot of confidence in Mr. Sleiman and that Mr. Sleiman’s status was even higher than that of the minister of defense.

According to the source, the assassination was carried out in professional precision by a sniper from the sea’s direction while Mr. Suleiman was sunbathing in the coastal city of Tartous. The circumstances remain vague as non of Syria’s state-controlled-media mentioned it.

The yet-to-be confirmed news has sent a whirlwind of speculations buzzing through the Arab and Israeli media, prompting many theories on why Mr. Suleiman was assassinated and on the significance of the Event.

Here are the theories I found most credible:

1- Mr. Suleiman was killed by the Syrian regime because he knows too much about the coordination between Syria, Iran and North Korea on nuclear programs.

6- Mr. Suleiman was killed by the Israeli intelligence as a way to put pressure on Mr. Assad to take action with regards to Hezbollah’s armament.

I’d like to know what you think of this. Which of the above theories do you find the most convincing? Why?

23 comments News Analysis

Friday, August 1

Photos: Army Day Official Parade

Today is the first day of August, Lebanon’s Army day. On the balance of what happened in the last few years, do you think the army deserves to be celebrated or does it need more work?

(Photos: Mahmoud Tawil, AP)

15 comments photos

Thursday, July 31

And On The 14th Day, Will We Rest?

The government’s ministerial statement is scheduled to be born tomorrow. How much will it matter?

So finally, after 14 meetings (coincidence?), it seems the government will finally have a mission statement at hand. As soon as it will be published, a massive public scrutiny will follow. Here are some of the things we should be looking for:

- Is the statement a fudge that is heavy on spin and light on substance? Or is it really the result of a laborious soul-searching exercise as Mr. Mitri had suggested?

- Will the statement resolve the thorny issue of the “resistance and the state” or will it simply lay the framework for discussing the matter in the future?

- Will the statement discuss the relationship between Hezbollah’s weapons and the upcoming parliamentary elections? Or will it completely ignore it?

- Will the statement put an end to freelance diplomacy by Hezbollah and its allies, like recently supporting the Sudanese government and backing the Iranian nuclear program?

- In light of the upcoming Israeli change of leadership, will the statement establish ‘best practices’ for dealing with Israeli potential aggressions or overtures?

Those are just some points to look for in the statement. Did I forget to mention anything? What other things do you think we should be looking for?

7 comments Lebanese politics